OGResearch News

Highlights of our expertise in structural modeling and macroeconomic forecasting

Invitation to the Local Currency Development in Frontier and Emerging Markets event organized by Bloomberg

 

March 17, 2024

OGResearch's Managing Partner David Vavra will be one of the speakers at the Local Currency Development in Frontier and Emerging Markets event, a discussion at Bloomberg’s European headquarters.

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Positive Spillovers: A Closer Look at Kyrgyzstan's External Balance amid the Russian war in Ukraine

 

March 6, 2024

The Russian war in Ukraine has reshaped the economic dynamics in the CIS region. Our analyis shows that despite initial concerns over its external balance and currency, Kyrgyzstan appears to benefit from trade relocation spurred by Western sanctions on Russia. Hidden external inflows and increased fiscal revenue from import surges suggest a more positive economic outlook than officially reported, though challenges in data accuracy persist.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- March 2024

 

March 4, 2024

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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Analysis of the capital stock's contribution to GDP across various countries

 

February 20, 2024

In our recent analysis we examine the capital stock's contribution to GDP across various countries, comparing it to Saudi Arabia within the growth accounting framework.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- February 2024

 

February 1, 2024

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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David Vavra appointed as Advisor to the Governor of the National Bank of Georgia

 

January 25, 2024

Recently, OGR's Managing Partner David Vavra has been appointed as Advisor to the Governor of the National Bank of Georgia

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David Vavra appointed as Advisor to the Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine

 

January 22, 2024

OGResearch's Managing Partner David Vavra has been appointed as Advisor to the Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine

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Myanmar: a unique system of multiple parallel exchange rates

 

January 10, 2024

In an attempt to alleviate the short-term consequences of economic deterioration, the Myanmar junta has implemented a series of market restrictions, creating significant distortions in interest and foreign exchange markets. The introduction of a convoluted exchange rate system aims to delay the repercussions of an overvalued currency but may ultimately exacerbate the country's economic challenges. A brief analysis of Myanmar's situation.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- January 2024

 

January 9, 2024

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- December 2023

 

December 6, 2023

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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The socio-economic situation of Moldova since the war in Ukraine - an analysis for the Norwegian Refugee Council

 

November 29, 2023

Our team prepared a desk review for the Norwegian Refugee Council analizing the socio-economic situation in Moldova, and a related policy brief pointing out the main steps to be taken. Read our brief summary in this article.

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Katalin Szilágyi, Head of OGResearch Budapest office, highlighted the challenges for the Hungarian economy in a recent interview

 

November 27, 2023

Katalin Szilágyi, Head of OGResearch's Budapest office, highlighted in her recent interview the challenges for Hungary's economic growth, where she cautioned against optimistic projections regarding the country's debt reduction, and expressed her concerns about labor productivity that could impede Hungary's long-term growth prospects.

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Genuine coal production increase improves Mongolian short-term outlook

 

November 21, 2023

Amidst the COVID pandemic, Mongolia faced a challenging predicament when border closures by its primary trade partner, China, limited coal exports—a significant component of its GDP. However, as our resent analysis suggests, with China's reopening in 2023, Mongolia's economy surged, benefiting from increased coal production and positioning itself to potentially surpass expected export figures, driven by genuine production improvements and enhanced export capacities.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- November 2023

 

November 3, 2023

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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Building curves in frontier markets using market data, macro data and investors’ risk preferences - David Vavra's presentation at the IMF and WB’s Annual Meetings in Marrakesh, October 2023

 

October 12, 2023

David Vavra, Managing Partner at OGResearch made a presentation at the DFI Senior Forum on Local Currency Finance on 11 October 2023 at the IMF and WB’s Annual Meetings in Marrakesh about Building curves in frontier markets using market data, macro data and investors’ risk preferences.

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Currency risk is stifling climate finance for developing countries. It should – and can – be mitigated

 

October 10, 2023

OGResearch contributed with inputs to a recent article published by Ruurd Brouwer, CEO of TCX. The op-ed emphasizes that resolving currency risk is crucial for funding climate projects in developing nations; historical examples underscore the need for action, potentially through debt adjustments and hedging instruments provided by international institutions.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- October 2023

 

October 2, 2023

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- September 2023

 

September 5, 2023

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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Assessing Laos' Economic Downturn: Causes, Implications and Outlook

 

August 10, 2023

Laos is navigating a severe economic downturn due to a dual shock from COVID-19 and the Ukraine conflict, which lead to a 70% depreciation of the Lao kip against the USD. The country's substantial exposure in public debt, combined with unfavorable investment decisions, has pushed government debt from 60% of GDP in 2018 to 110% in 2022. The challenges are exacerbated by tourism setbacks, declining foreign investment, and import-related strains, casting a pessimistic outlook on both fiscal and external fronts.

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Understanding Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Currency Denomination

 

July 11, 2023

The combination of elevated global risks, tightened monetary conditions, and record-high debt levels in low-income countries has exacerbated debt sustainability concerns, underscoring the need to thoroughly analyze factors like the currency denomination of debt. The Open FX position, which considers gross external debt and FX reserves, provides a valuable indicator to assess sovereign risk and the vulnerability of countries to currency risks associated with debt.

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Burundi's sharp exchange rate devaluation was correctly forecasted by OGResearch

 

May 16, 2023

Burundi has devalued its exchange rate by about 35%, which OGResearch accurately forecasted since 2019. This step potentially signals the start of a period of macroeconomic stabilization and reduction of imbalances.

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Managing Fiscal Policy in Resource-Rich Economies: Lessons from Mongolia

 

May 5, 2023

Resource-rich countries like Mongolia are prone to boom-and-bust cycles due to their heavy reliance on revenues from natural resources, which are vulnerable to volatile prices and production levels. Our analysis suggests that this dependency on raw material mining and exports is likely to increase further in the next few years, making it advisable for Mongolia to move away from procyclical fiscal policies and direct windfall gains into sovereign wealth funds.

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Mozambique: Great Expectations, so far Unfulfilled

 

May 2, 2023

Mozambique's economic history is marked by recurring setbacks, including the "Hidden Debt Scandal," unrest, and low resilience to weather events. While upcoming LNG projects have the potential to boost the economy, the country must address persistent structural issues to ensure sustained and broad-based economic development, despite the IMF's optimistic outlook on future growth.

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The IMF is Implicitly Optimistic About Productivity Growth

 

May 1, 2023

Our recent analysis suggests the IMF may be optimistic about productivity growth. This optimism about productivity growth stems from various factors, such as technological advancements, changes in working-age population growth, past negative shocks, and the unique characteristics of countries with large commodity sectors, but the effect on global growth is expected to remain minimal due to the anticipated slowdown in TFP growth in China.

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How bad is Moldova’s overvaluation? Cross-checking different metrics of the real exchange rate

 

April 19, 2023

The Moldovan Leu has experienced a significant real appreciation, leading to concerns of an overvalued currency that may harm the country's competitiveness in global markets. However, our alternative metrics such as core inflation-based or producer price-based REER, as well as the relative ULC suggest that the overvaluation may not be as severe as initially thought.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- March 2023

 

April 11, 2023

Read highlights from our forecasts published in March and get the forecast schedule for the next month.

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A brief analysis by David Vavra on monetary policy anchors of the Czech National Bank

 

March 27, 2023

A concise discussion illustrates the performance of different anchors of monetary policy in the Czech Republic over the last few decades.

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OGR Partner David Vavra Shares Insights on Current Banking Crisis

 

March 22, 2023

OGR Partner David Vavra gave a short interview to Hospodarske Noviny, a leading Czech economic media outlet, about the current banking crisis. According to David, the problems of specific banks are not directly related to the broader problems of medium-sized banks worldwide, but long-term rethinking of the banking sector may be necessary.

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What Happens if the US Dollar Loses its Dominance?

 

March 21, 2023

In our short analysis, we have explored the history and consequences of the US dollar's dominant position in the global economy and examine what could happen if it were to lose this position. With a focus on the potential impact on current account deficits and investment income, we have considered the likelihood of a new dominant currency emerging and the potential consequences for the world economy.

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MESS, a macroprudential modeling framework designed by OGR partners Jaromír Beneš, Tomáš Motl, and David Vávra

 

March 20, 2023

A newly published working paper by OGR partners Jaromír Beneš, Tomáš Motl, and David Vávra introduces the MESS framework, a nonlinear macroprudential modelling tool that incorporates key insights from financial cycle literature and offers policymakers a flexible yet theoretically sound tool for examining macroprudential policy costs and benefits.

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