OGResearch News

Highlights of our expertise in structural modeling and macroeconomic forecasting

Katalin Szilágyi, Head of OGResearch Budapest office, highlighted the challenges for the Hungarian economy in a recent interview


November 27, 2023

Katalin Szilágyi, Head of OGResearch's Budapest office, highlighted in her recent interview the challenges for Hungary's economic growth, where she cautioned against optimistic projections regarding the country's debt reduction, and expressed her concerns about labor productivity that could impede Hungary's long-term growth prospects.

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Genuine coal production increase improves Mongolian short-term outlook


November 21, 2023

Amidst the COVID pandemic, Mongolia faced a challenging predicament when border closures by its primary trade partner, China, limited coal exports—a significant component of its GDP. However, as our resent analysis suggests, with China's reopening in 2023, Mongolia's economy surged, benefiting from increased coal production and positioning itself to potentially surpass expected export figures, driven by genuine production improvements and enhanced export capacities.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- November 2023


November 3, 2023

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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Building curves in frontier markets using market data, macro data and investors’ risk preferences - David Vavra's presentation at the IMF and WB’s Annual Meetings in Marrakesh, October 2023


October 12, 2023

David Vavra, Managing Partner at OGResearch made a presentation at the DFI Senior Forum on Local Currency Finance on 11 October 2023 at the IMF and WB’s Annual Meetings in Marrakesh about Building curves in frontier markets using market data, macro data and investors’ risk preferences.

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Currency risk is stifling climate finance for developing countries. It should – and can – be mitigated


October 10, 2023

OGResearch contributed with inputs to a recent article published by Ruurd Brouwer, CEO of TCX. The op-ed emphasizes that resolving currency risk is crucial for funding climate projects in developing nations; historical examples underscore the need for action, potentially through debt adjustments and hedging instruments provided by international institutions.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- October 2023


October 2, 2023

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- September 2023


September 5, 2023

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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Assessing Laos' Economic Downturn: Causes, Implications and Outlook


August 10, 2023

Laos is navigating a severe economic downturn due to a dual shock from COVID-19 and the Ukraine conflict, which lead to a 70% depreciation of the Lao kip against the USD. The country's substantial exposure in public debt, combined with unfavorable investment decisions, has pushed government debt from 60% of GDP in 2018 to 110% in 2022. The challenges are exacerbated by tourism setbacks, declining foreign investment, and import-related strains, casting a pessimistic outlook on both fiscal and external fronts.

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Understanding Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Currency Denomination


July 11, 2023

The combination of elevated global risks, tightened monetary conditions, and record-high debt levels in low-income countries has exacerbated debt sustainability concerns, underscoring the need to thoroughly analyze factors like the currency denomination of debt. The Open FX position, which considers gross external debt and FX reserves, provides a valuable indicator to assess sovereign risk and the vulnerability of countries to currency risks associated with debt.

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Burundi's sharp exchange rate devaluation was correctly forecasted by OGResearch


May 16, 2023

Burundi has devalued its exchange rate by about 35%, which OGResearch accurately forecasted since 2019. This step potentially signals the start of a period of macroeconomic stabilization and reduction of imbalances.

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Managing Fiscal Policy in Resource-Rich Economies: Lessons from Mongolia


May 5, 2023

Resource-rich countries like Mongolia are prone to boom-and-bust cycles due to their heavy reliance on revenues from natural resources, which are vulnerable to volatile prices and production levels. Our analysis suggests that this dependency on raw material mining and exports is likely to increase further in the next few years, making it advisable for Mongolia to move away from procyclical fiscal policies and direct windfall gains into sovereign wealth funds.

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Mozambique: Great Expectations, so far Unfulfilled


May 2, 2023

Mozambique's economic history is marked by recurring setbacks, including the "Hidden Debt Scandal," unrest, and low resilience to weather events. While upcoming LNG projects have the potential to boost the economy, the country must address persistent structural issues to ensure sustained and broad-based economic development, despite the IMF's optimistic outlook on future growth.

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The IMF is Implicitly Optimistic About Productivity Growth


May 1, 2023

Our recent analysis suggests the IMF may be optimistic about productivity growth. This optimism about productivity growth stems from various factors, such as technological advancements, changes in working-age population growth, past negative shocks, and the unique characteristics of countries with large commodity sectors, but the effect on global growth is expected to remain minimal due to the anticipated slowdown in TFP growth in China.

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How bad is Moldova’s overvaluation? Cross-checking different metrics of the real exchange rate


April 19, 2023

The Moldovan Leu has experienced a significant real appreciation, leading to concerns of an overvalued currency that may harm the country's competitiveness in global markets. However, our alternative metrics such as core inflation-based or producer price-based REER, as well as the relative ULC suggest that the overvaluation may not be as severe as initially thought.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- March 2023


April 11, 2023

Read highlights from our forecasts published in March and get the forecast schedule for the next month.

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A brief analysis by David Vavra on monetary policy anchors of the Czech National Bank


March 27, 2023

A concise discussion illustrates the performance of different anchors of monetary policy in the Czech Republic over the last few decades.

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OGR Partner David Vavra Shares Insights on Current Banking Crisis


March 22, 2023

OGR Partner David Vavra gave a short interview to Hospodarske Noviny, a leading Czech economic media outlet, about the current banking crisis. According to David, the problems of specific banks are not directly related to the broader problems of medium-sized banks worldwide, but long-term rethinking of the banking sector may be necessary.

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What Happens if the US Dollar Loses its Dominance?


March 21, 2023

In our short analysis, we have explored the history and consequences of the US dollar's dominant position in the global economy and examine what could happen if it were to lose this position. With a focus on the potential impact on current account deficits and investment income, we have considered the likelihood of a new dominant currency emerging and the potential consequences for the world economy.

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MESS, a macroprudential modeling framework designed by OGR partners Jaromír Beneš, Tomáš Motl, and David Vávra


March 20, 2023

A newly published working paper by OGR partners Jaromír Beneš, Tomáš Motl, and David Vávra introduces the MESS framework, a nonlinear macroprudential modelling tool that incorporates key insights from financial cycle literature and offers policymakers a flexible yet theoretically sound tool for examining macroprudential policy costs and benefits.

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Tajikistan: A ticking bomb of SOEs


March 17, 2023

Despite improving headline budget indicators, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) pose a significant risk to fiscal policy in Tajikistan, with liabilities not reflected in official public debt statistics. Comprehensive governance and transparency reforms are needed to address the issue and prevent a potential system breakdown.

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OGR's Managing Partner, David Vavra, warns of persistent inflation and unclear monetary policy of the Czech National Bank


March 14, 2023

David Vavra, Managing Partner of OGR, has expressed concerns in a TV interview over the Czech National Bank's monetary policy strategy and the possibility of persistent high inflation in the country. He believes that the bank has shifted its focus towards controlling the exchange rate instead of an Inflation Targeting regime, which may also lead to loss of credibility.

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OGResearch's Managing Partner raised concerns in a recent interview about the Czech National Bank's ability to manage inflation


March 3, 2023

In a recent interview, David Vavra, Managing Partner of OGResearch, criticized the Czech National Bank (CNB) for its handling of inflation. He argued that the CNB has quietly abandoned its inflation targeting regime, with inflation in the Czech Republic set to remain in double digits for most of this year, far from the bank's official goal of 2%. Vavra, who played a key role in implementing and modelling the CNB's inflation targeting mechanism in the late 1990s, stated that the bank's leadership lacks a clear view of how inflation will develop.

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Kazakhstan: opportunity lost?


March 2, 2023

Kazakhstan's economy has seen significant growth in recent decades due to its thriving oil industry. However, our recent analysis has revealed a concerning trend - the country is struggling to transform its vast income from hydrocarbons to productivity improvements in other sectors.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- February 2023


March 1, 2023

Read highlights from our forecasts published in February and get the forecast schedule for the next month.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- January 2023


February 5, 2023

Read highlights from our forecasts published in January and get the forecast schedule for the next month.

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The Western sanctions' effect on the Russian Economy - a Tribune de Genève article with our insight


January 29, 2023

A recent Tribune de Genève article was analyzing the effect of the Western sanctions on the Russian Economy. We are happy that our insight about the role of Russia's reserves proved to be useful for the analysis.

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OGR in the press: It's the currency, stupid - an FT article


January 25, 2023

OGResearch provided an analytic input to TCX's article in Financial Times Alphaville on the topic of debt sustainability and DSSI suspension, and how depreciation represents a significant risk in developing economies due to their large share of debt in foreign currency.

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The Price of War: Understanding Conflict Economics in a Volatile World - a symposium sponsored by OGResearch


January 11, 2023

The Price of War: Understanding Conflict Economics in a Volatile World symposium in London, organized by CERGE-EI Foundation, was addressing some of the most pressing questions about the economic impact of war, the future of Europe and European security, and global supply chains. We were happy to provide our support as we are confident that deeper understanding of the economic consequences of war is inevitable to address the resulting social and financial challenges we face today.

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To peg or not to peg: A suitable exchange rate regime for the Ukrainian hryvnia in times of war


December 23, 2022

In a recent article, OGR Managing Partner David Vavra argues why the fixed exchange rate has been the appropriate arrangement for Ukraine since the outbreak of the war.

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OGR in press: Ukraine war knocks 1% off global economic growth


December 3, 2022

Ukraine war knocks 1% off global economic growth

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- November 2022


December 3, 2022

Read highlights from our forecasts published in November and get the forecast schedule for the next month.

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