July 25, 2024
OGR consultant Daniel Martinec participated in an FPAS dissemination trip, supporting TCX during its two-day seminar in Guinea, and presenting the forecasting and analytical framework of OGR.
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July 16, 2024
OGResearch is hiring data operators
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July 11, 2024
Cooperation continued between OGR and the economic bodies of Uzbekistan as OGR consultants Victoria Petrenko and Áron Iker held a workshop for the Ministry of Economy and Finance last week.
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July 8, 2024
In an interview with The New Voice of Ukraine, OGR Managing Partner David Vavra evaluated the National Bank of Ukraine's monetary policies during the war, the implications of fixed exchange rates, and the future of currency liberalization.
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July 5, 2024
OGR Consultant Csaba Köber held a training session organized in cooperation with the Global Institute for Macroprudential Modeling (GIMM).
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July 3, 2024
OGResearch is hiring to its offices in Prague, Brno, Budapest or Belgrade
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July 2, 2024
The paper "Inflation-linked bonds are not a good instrument for financing government debt in emerging and developing economies: a view from risk-return analysis," has been accepted for presentation at the 3rd Public Debt Management Conference held in Wahshington DC.
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July 1, 2024
Summary of our recent forecast updates: Malawi, Tanzania
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June 29, 2024
OGR consultant Csaba Köber supported the Bank of Zambia in enhancing their FPAS process in a cooperation with MEFMI
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June 24, 2024
OGR Partner David Vavra moderated a policy panel at the 8th Annual Research Conference jointly organized by the National Bank of Ukraine and the Narodowy Bank Polski.
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June 7, 2024
OGR continued its long history of cooperation with the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, focusing on liquidity management and monetary policy transmission, this time in the form of giving advice and hands-on training as well.
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June 5, 2024
Summary of our recent forecast updates: Moldova, Ukraine
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June 3, 2024
OGR consultants Tomas Motl and Jaromir Benes helped the Central Bank of Uzbekistan in developing scenarios for the Uzbek economy using a DSGE model tailored to Uzbekistan.The workshop was organized by the Swiss National Bank.
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May 9, 2024
Summary of our recent forecast updates
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May 8, 2024
International migration is partly driven by relative incomes. This means it could still accelerate in coming decades, despite the political tensions it sometimes creates. Without net inward migration, working age populations in rich countries would shrink massively. Our analysis covers the relationship between migration and long-term growth.
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May 1, 2024
While the concept of a "middle income trap" suggests economic growth stalls at around 70% of US productivity, its existence may not significantly impact a country's long-term prosperity. Even if this trap holds true, other factors such as capital stock, employment, and technological advancement can compensate for productivity stagnation. Our analysis covers this topic in more depth.
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April 28, 2024
Our analysis examines the relative economic performance of key players such as China, India, the USA, and the EU. Highlighting the impact of demographics and productivity convergence, it provides insights into the future landscape of global economics and geopolitical competition.
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April 24, 2024
A brief overview of the ongoing dispute in Sierra Leone's mining industry
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April 22, 2024
According to our analysis, Tunisia's challenging fiscal situation can only be resolved through significant adjustments and with the assistance of the IMF
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April 19, 2024
The MacroEconomic Stress Scenario builder, a macroprudential modeling framework for practical application at policymaking institutions were developed by OGR Partners Jaromir Benes, Tomas Motl and David Vavra, now also published in the Czech Journal of Economics and Finance
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April 10, 2024
Our recent analysis of Papua New Guinea's external balance shows that the seemingly bright picture of the current account surplus is misleading
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April 4, 2024
OGR Managing Partner David Vavra gave an interview to Rustavi 2, one of the most popular Georgian television channels
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April 3, 2024
Summary of our recent forecast updates
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March 17, 2024
OGResearch's Managing Partner David Vavra will be one of the speakers at the Local Currency Development in Frontier and Emerging Markets event, a discussion at Bloomberg’s European headquarters.
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March 6, 2024
The Russian war in Ukraine has reshaped the economic dynamics in the CIS region. Our analyis shows that despite initial concerns over its external balance and currency, Kyrgyzstan appears to benefit from trade relocation spurred by Western sanctions on Russia. Hidden external inflows and increased fiscal revenue from import surges suggest a more positive economic outlook than officially reported, though challenges in data accuracy persist.
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March 4, 2024
Summary of our recent forecast updates
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February 20, 2024
In our recent analysis we examine the capital stock's contribution to GDP across various countries, comparing it to Saudi Arabia within the growth accounting framework.
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February 1, 2024
Summary of our recent forecast updates
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January 25, 2024
Recently, OGR's Managing Partner David Vavra has been appointed as Advisor to the Governor of the National Bank of Georgia
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January 22, 2024
OGResearch's Managing Partner David Vavra has been appointed as Advisor to the Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine
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January 10, 2024
In an attempt to alleviate the short-term consequences of economic deterioration, the Myanmar junta has implemented a series of market restrictions, creating significant distortions in interest and foreign exchange markets. The introduction of a convoluted exchange rate system aims to delay the repercussions of an overvalued currency but may ultimately exacerbate the country's economic challenges. A brief analysis of Myanmar's situation.
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January 9, 2024
Summary of our recent forecast updates
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December 6, 2023
Summary of our recent forecast updates
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November 29, 2023
Our team prepared a desk review for the Norwegian Refugee Council analizing the socio-economic situation in Moldova, and a related policy brief pointing out the main steps to be taken. Read our brief summary in this article.
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November 27, 2023
Katalin Szilágyi, Head of OGResearch's Budapest office, highlighted in her recent interview the challenges for Hungary's economic growth, where she cautioned against optimistic projections regarding the country's debt reduction, and expressed her concerns about labor productivity that could impede Hungary's long-term growth prospects.
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November 21, 2023
Amidst the COVID pandemic, Mongolia faced a challenging predicament when border closures by its primary trade partner, China, limited coal exports—a significant component of its GDP. However, as our resent analysis suggests, with China's reopening in 2023, Mongolia's economy surged, benefiting from increased coal production and positioning itself to potentially surpass expected export figures, driven by genuine production improvements and enhanced export capacities.
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November 3, 2023
Summary of our recent forecast updates
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October 12, 2023
David Vavra, Managing Partner at OGResearch made a presentation at the DFI Senior Forum on Local Currency Finance on 11 October 2023 at the IMF and WB’s Annual Meetings in Marrakesh about Building curves in frontier markets using market data, macro data and investors’ risk preferences.
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October 10, 2023
OGResearch contributed with inputs to a recent article published by Ruurd Brouwer, CEO of TCX. The op-ed emphasizes that resolving currency risk is crucial for funding climate projects in developing nations; historical examples underscore the need for action, potentially through debt adjustments and hedging instruments provided by international institutions.
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October 2, 2023
Summary of our recent forecast updates
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September 5, 2023
Summary of our recent forecast updates
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August 10, 2023
Laos is navigating a severe economic downturn due to a dual shock from COVID-19 and the Ukraine conflict, which lead to a 70% depreciation of the Lao kip against the USD. The country's substantial exposure in public debt, combined with unfavorable investment decisions, has pushed government debt from 60% of GDP in 2018 to 110% in 2022. The challenges are exacerbated by tourism setbacks, declining foreign investment, and import-related strains, casting a pessimistic outlook on both fiscal and external fronts.
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