May 16, 2023
Burundi has devalued its exchange rate by about 35%, which OGResearch accurately forecasted since 2019. This step potentially signals the start of a period of macroeconomic stabilization and reduction of imbalances.
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May 5, 2023
Resource-rich countries like Mongolia are prone to boom-and-bust cycles due to their heavy reliance on revenues from natural resources, which are vulnerable to volatile prices and production levels. Our analysis suggests that this dependency on raw material mining and exports is likely to increase further in the next few years, making it advisable for Mongolia to move away from procyclical fiscal policies and direct windfall gains into sovereign wealth funds.
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May 2, 2023
Mozambique's economic history is marked by recurring setbacks, including the "Hidden Debt Scandal," unrest, and low resilience to weather events. While upcoming LNG projects have the potential to boost the economy, the country must address persistent structural issues to ensure sustained and broad-based economic development, despite the IMF's optimistic outlook on future growth.
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May 1, 2023
Our recent analysis suggests the IMF may be optimistic about productivity growth. This optimism about productivity growth stems from various factors, such as technological advancements, changes in working-age population growth, past negative shocks, and the unique characteristics of countries with large commodity sectors, but the effect on global growth is expected to remain minimal due to the anticipated slowdown in TFP growth in China.
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April 19, 2023
The Moldovan Leu has experienced a significant real appreciation, leading to concerns of an overvalued currency that may harm the country's competitiveness in global markets. However, our alternative metrics such as core inflation-based or producer price-based REER, as well as the relative ULC suggest that the overvaluation may not be as severe as initially thought.
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April 11, 2023
Read highlights from our forecasts published in March and get the forecast schedule for the next month.
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March 27, 2023
A concise discussion illustrates the performance of different anchors of monetary policy in the Czech Republic over the last few decades.
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March 22, 2023
OGR Partner David Vavra gave a short interview to Hospodarske Noviny, a leading Czech economic media outlet, about the current banking crisis. According to David, the problems of specific banks are not directly related to the broader problems of medium-sized banks worldwide, but long-term rethinking of the banking sector may be necessary.
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March 21, 2023
In our short analysis, we have explored the history and consequences of the US dollar's dominant position in the global economy and examine what could happen if it were to lose this position. With a focus on the potential impact on current account deficits and investment income, we have considered the likelihood of a new dominant currency emerging and the potential consequences for the world economy.
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March 20, 2023
A newly published working paper by OGR partners Jaromír Beneš, Tomáš Motl, and David Vávra introduces the MESS framework, a nonlinear macroprudential modelling tool that incorporates key insights from financial cycle literature and offers policymakers a flexible yet theoretically sound tool for examining macroprudential policy costs and benefits.
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March 17, 2023
Despite improving headline budget indicators, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) pose a significant risk to fiscal policy in Tajikistan, with liabilities not reflected in official public debt statistics. Comprehensive governance and transparency reforms are needed to address the issue and prevent a potential system breakdown.
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March 14, 2023
David Vavra, Managing Partner of OGR, has expressed concerns in a TV interview over the Czech National Bank's monetary policy strategy and the possibility of persistent high inflation in the country. He believes that the bank has shifted its focus towards controlling the exchange rate instead of an Inflation Targeting regime, which may also lead to loss of credibility.
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March 3, 2023
In a recent interview, David Vavra, Managing Partner of OGResearch, criticized the Czech National Bank (CNB) for its handling of inflation. He argued that the CNB has quietly abandoned its inflation targeting regime, with inflation in the Czech Republic set to remain in double digits for most of this year, far from the bank's official goal of 2%. Vavra, who played a key role in implementing and modelling the CNB's inflation targeting mechanism in the late 1990s, stated that the bank's leadership lacks a clear view of how inflation will develop.
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March 2, 2023
Kazakhstan's economy has seen significant growth in recent decades due to its thriving oil industry. However, our recent analysis has revealed a concerning trend - the country is struggling to transform its vast income from hydrocarbons to productivity improvements in other sectors.
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March 1, 2023
Read highlights from our forecasts published in February and get the forecast schedule for the next month.
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February 5, 2023
Read highlights from our forecasts published in January and get the forecast schedule for the next month.
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January 29, 2023
A recent Tribune de Genève article was analyzing the effect of the Western sanctions on the Russian Economy. We are happy that our insight about the role of Russia's reserves proved to be useful for the analysis.
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January 25, 2023
OGResearch provided an analytic input to TCX's article in Financial Times Alphaville on the topic of debt sustainability and DSSI suspension, and how depreciation represents a significant risk in developing economies due to their large share of debt in foreign currency.
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January 11, 2023
The Price of War: Understanding Conflict Economics in a Volatile World symposium in London, organized by CERGE-EI Foundation, was addressing some of the most pressing questions about the economic impact of war, the future of Europe and European security, and global supply chains. We were happy to provide our support as we are confident that deeper understanding of the economic consequences of war is inevitable to address the resulting social and financial challenges we face today.
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December 23, 2022
In a recent article, OGR Managing Partner David Vavra argues why the fixed exchange rate has been the appropriate arrangement for Ukraine since the outbreak of the war.
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December 3, 2022
Ukraine war knocks 1% off global economic growth
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December 3, 2022
Read highlights from our forecasts published in November and get the forecast schedule for the next month.
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November 4, 2022
Read highlights from our forecasts published in October and get the forecast schedule for the next month.
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October 4, 2022
Read highlights from our forecasts published in September and get the forecast schedule for the next month.
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September 7, 2022
Read highlights from our forecasts published in August and get the forecast schedule for the next month.
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August 6, 2022
Read highlights from our forecasts published in July and get the forecast schedule for the next month.
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May 31, 2022
Read highlights from our forecasts published in May and get the forecast schedule for the next month.
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