OGResearch News

Highlights of our expertise in structural modeling and macroeconomic forecasting

Join our team: we are hiring data operators at OGResearch

 

July 16, 2024

OGResearch is hiring data operators

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OGR consultants held a workshop for the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uzbekistan

 

July 11, 2024

Cooperation continued between OGR and the economic bodies of Uzbekistan as OGR consultants Victoria Petrenko and Áron Iker held a workshop for the Ministry of Economy and Finance last week.

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OGR Managing Partner David Vavra discussed Ukraine's monetary and exchange rate policies in wartime in NV Ukraine

 

July 8, 2024

In an interview with The New Voice of Ukraine, OGR Managing Partner David Vavra evaluated the National Bank of Ukraine's monetary policies during the war, the implications of fixed exchange rates, and the future of currency liberalization.

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OGR supported the National Bank of Rwanda in a technical assistance mission

 

July 5, 2024

OGR Consultant Csaba Köber held a training session organized in cooperation with the Global Institute for Macroprudential Modeling (GIMM).

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Join our team: we are hiring analysts / model operators at OGResearch

 

July 3, 2024

OGResearch is hiring to its offices in Prague, Brno, Budapest or Belgrade

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Paper co-authored by OGR Partner David Vavra and OGR Senior Researcher Victoria Petrenko accepted at the Public Debt Management Conference

 

July 2, 2024

The paper "Inflation-linked bonds are not a good instrument for financing government debt in emerging and developing economies: a view from risk-return analysis," has been accepted for presentation at the 3rd Public Debt Management Conference held in Wahshington DC.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- July 2024

 

July 1, 2024

Summary of our recent forecast updates: Malawi, Tanzania

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OGR provided technical assistance to the Bank of Zambia

 

June 29, 2024

OGR consultant Csaba Köber supported the Bank of Zambia in enhancing their FPAS process in a cooperation with MEFMI

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David Vavra moderated a policy panel at the Annual Research Conference of the central banks of Ukraine and Poland

 

June 24, 2024

OGR Partner David Vavra moderated a policy panel at the 8th Annual Research Conference jointly organized by the National Bank of Ukraine and the Narodowy Bank Polski.

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Cooperation with the Central Bank of Uzbekistan continues

 

June 7, 2024

OGR continued its long history of cooperation with the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, focusing on liquidity management and monetary policy transmission, this time in the form of giving advice and hands-on training as well.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- June 2024

 

June 5, 2024

Summary of our recent forecast updates: Moldova, Ukraine

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OGR consultants provided technical assistance to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan

 

June 3, 2024

OGR consultants Tomas Motl and Jaromir Benes helped the Central Bank of Uzbekistan in developing scenarios for the Uzbek economy using a DSGE model tailored to Uzbekistan.The workshop was organized by the Swiss National Bank.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- May 2024

 

May 9, 2024

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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Migration patterns and the global growth outlook: people flow matter a lot

 

May 8, 2024

International migration is partly driven by relative incomes. This means it could still accelerate in coming decades, despite the political tensions it sometimes creates. Without net inward migration, working age populations in rich countries would shrink massively. Our analysis covers the relationship between migration and long-term growth.

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Middle income trap – it may exist but it may not matter too much

 

May 1, 2024

While the concept of a "middle income trap" suggests economic growth stalls at around 70% of US productivity, its existence may not significantly impact a country's long-term prosperity. Even if this trap holds true, other factors such as capital stock, employment, and technological advancement can compensate for productivity stagnation. Our analysis covers this topic in more depth.

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Long-Term Economic Outlook: Another Reversal of Fortune?

 

April 28, 2024

Our analysis examines the relative economic performance of key players such as China, India, the USA, and the EU. Highlighting the impact of demographics and productivity convergence, it provides insights into the future landscape of global economics and geopolitical competition.

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Sierra Leone’s Rutile Giant to Withdraw from All Mining Activities Following Government Dispute

 

April 24, 2024

A brief overview of the ongoing dispute in Sierra Leone's mining industry

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IMF as the Only Potential Savior of Tunisia's Fiscal Deficit

 

April 22, 2024

According to our analysis, Tunisia's challenging fiscal situation can only be resolved through significant adjustments and with the assistance of the IMF

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OGR Partners published their paper of the MacroEconomic Stress Scenario builder in the Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

 

April 19, 2024

The MacroEconomic Stress Scenario builder, a macroprudential modeling framework for practical application at policymaking institutions were developed by OGR Partners Jaromir Benes, Tomas Motl and David Vavra, now also published in the Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

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Papua New Guinea – The case of a misleading current account surplus

 

April 10, 2024

Our recent analysis of Papua New Guinea's external balance shows that the seemingly bright picture of the current account surplus is misleading

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David Vavra gave an interview to a main Georgian television channel

 

April 4, 2024

OGR Managing Partner David Vavra gave an interview to Rustavi 2, one of the most popular Georgian television channels

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- April 2024

 

April 3, 2024

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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Invitation to the Local Currency Development in Frontier and Emerging Markets event organized by Bloomberg

 

March 17, 2024

OGResearch's Managing Partner David Vavra will be one of the speakers at the Local Currency Development in Frontier and Emerging Markets event, a discussion at Bloomberg’s European headquarters.

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Positive Spillovers: A Closer Look at Kyrgyzstan's External Balance amid the Russian war in Ukraine

 

March 6, 2024

The Russian war in Ukraine has reshaped the economic dynamics in the CIS region. Our analyis shows that despite initial concerns over its external balance and currency, Kyrgyzstan appears to benefit from trade relocation spurred by Western sanctions on Russia. Hidden external inflows and increased fiscal revenue from import surges suggest a more positive economic outlook than officially reported, though challenges in data accuracy persist.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- March 2024

 

March 4, 2024

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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Analysis of the capital stock's contribution to GDP across various countries

 

February 20, 2024

In our recent analysis we examine the capital stock's contribution to GDP across various countries, comparing it to Saudi Arabia within the growth accounting framework.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- February 2024

 

February 1, 2024

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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David Vavra appointed as Advisor to the Governor of the National Bank of Georgia

 

January 25, 2024

Recently, OGR's Managing Partner David Vavra has been appointed as Advisor to the Governor of the National Bank of Georgia

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David Vavra appointed as Advisor to the Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine

 

January 22, 2024

OGResearch's Managing Partner David Vavra has been appointed as Advisor to the Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine

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Myanmar: a unique system of multiple parallel exchange rates

 

January 10, 2024

In an attempt to alleviate the short-term consequences of economic deterioration, the Myanmar junta has implemented a series of market restrictions, creating significant distortions in interest and foreign exchange markets. The introduction of a convoluted exchange rate system aims to delay the repercussions of an overvalued currency but may ultimately exacerbate the country's economic challenges. A brief analysis of Myanmar's situation.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- January 2024

 

January 9, 2024

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- December 2023

 

December 6, 2023

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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The socio-economic situation of Moldova since the war in Ukraine - an analysis for the Norwegian Refugee Council

 

November 29, 2023

Our team prepared a desk review for the Norwegian Refugee Council analizing the socio-economic situation in Moldova, and a related policy brief pointing out the main steps to be taken. Read our brief summary in this article.

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Katalin Szilágyi, Head of OGResearch Budapest office, highlighted the challenges for the Hungarian economy in a recent interview

 

November 27, 2023

Katalin Szilágyi, Head of OGResearch's Budapest office, highlighted in her recent interview the challenges for Hungary's economic growth, where she cautioned against optimistic projections regarding the country's debt reduction, and expressed her concerns about labor productivity that could impede Hungary's long-term growth prospects.

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Genuine coal production increase improves Mongolian short-term outlook

 

November 21, 2023

Amidst the COVID pandemic, Mongolia faced a challenging predicament when border closures by its primary trade partner, China, limited coal exports—a significant component of its GDP. However, as our resent analysis suggests, with China's reopening in 2023, Mongolia's economy surged, benefiting from increased coal production and positioning itself to potentially surpass expected export figures, driven by genuine production improvements and enhanced export capacities.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- November 2023

 

November 3, 2023

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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Building curves in frontier markets using market data, macro data and investors’ risk preferences - David Vavra's presentation at the IMF and WB’s Annual Meetings in Marrakesh, October 2023

 

October 12, 2023

David Vavra, Managing Partner at OGResearch made a presentation at the DFI Senior Forum on Local Currency Finance on 11 October 2023 at the IMF and WB’s Annual Meetings in Marrakesh about Building curves in frontier markets using market data, macro data and investors’ risk preferences.

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Currency risk is stifling climate finance for developing countries. It should – and can – be mitigated

 

October 10, 2023

OGResearch contributed with inputs to a recent article published by Ruurd Brouwer, CEO of TCX. The op-ed emphasizes that resolving currency risk is crucial for funding climate projects in developing nations; historical examples underscore the need for action, potentially through debt adjustments and hedging instruments provided by international institutions.

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- October 2023

 

October 2, 2023

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- September 2023

 

September 5, 2023

Summary of our recent forecast updates

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Assessing Laos' Economic Downturn: Causes, Implications and Outlook

 

August 10, 2023

Laos is navigating a severe economic downturn due to a dual shock from COVID-19 and the Ukraine conflict, which lead to a 70% depreciation of the Lao kip against the USD. The country's substantial exposure in public debt, combined with unfavorable investment decisions, has pushed government debt from 60% of GDP in 2018 to 110% in 2022. The challenges are exacerbated by tourism setbacks, declining foreign investment, and import-related strains, casting a pessimistic outlook on both fiscal and external fronts.

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