CIS Countries: Among the World’s Top Remittance Recipients

CIS Countries: Among the World’s Top Remittance Recipients

In some Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, remittance inflows jumped up and down by 5-10% of GDP over recent years – showing how prone these countries are to big economies in the region, such as Russia. For over a decade, the CIS region has consistently ranked among the highest recipients of remittance inflows globally. In particular, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have routinely posted inflows exceeding 25% of GDP. As remittances are a crucial source of household income, driving consumption and providing a significant foreign currency inflow, it’s inevitable to understand what prospects migrant laborers in the region have for the future.

Source: World Bank

Remittance flows to CIS countries have historically been concentrated from a single source: Russia. As of early 2025, Russia continues to offer significantly higher wages than the sending countries—approximately 1000 USD per month, compared to 250 USD in Tajikistan and 450 USD in Uzbekistan—providing a powerful economic incentive for migration. For households in these lower-income countries, labor migration to Russia remains a vital livelihood strategy. In 2024, around 1.5 million Tajik, 1.8 million Uzbek, and 500,000 Kyrgyz workers were in Russia. In the case of Tajikistan, for example, this represents around 20% of the working-age population.

The 2022 War and Post-War Shifts in Flows

The Russian war in Ukraine in early 2022 triggered notable shifts in remittance dynamics.  Remittance flows temporarily surged to countries such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan, fueled by heightened demand for migrant labor following the departure of approximately 1.1 million Russians from the workforce due to military conscription and emigration, along with ruble appreciation in Q2 2022 and capital outflows. However, these effects generally proved short-lived, partly due to accounting reasons (cash buffers sent abroad by Russians), and thus, inflows broadly normalized across most CIS countries throughout 2023. Tajikistan and, to a lesser extent, Kyrgyzstan stood out as exceptions, where limited domestic opportunities and strong wage incentives abroad continued to support high FX inflows.

In early 2024, Tajikistan experienced another spike in inflows, triggered by a terrorist attack in Moscow and the rollout of stricter migration laws, which led to increased uncertainty among migrants. While new departures declined by around 15%, those already abroad sent more money home as a precautionary response. In Kyrgyzstan, a similar drop in migrant numbers—from 700,000 to 500,000—was offset by higher per capita remittance inflows and a gradual shift toward alternative destinations such as Turkey, South Korea, and the UK, keeping inflows stable at around 15% of GDP.

Source: IMF, National Bank of Tajikistan

Medium-Term Outlook: Normalization with Structural Headwinds

Recent years show that remittance inflows are becoming a more volatile source of income for CIS countries, representing uncertainty for real and external balance outlooks.

At the moment, remittance inflows are already back to pre-war levels across most CIS countries except for Tajikistan. Moreover, structural factors signal growing negative risk in remittance inflows in the coming years:

• Russia’s economic deceleration: We expect that once the war concludes, Russia's economy will decelerate, so the capacity to absorb and remunerate foreign labor is likely to worsen.
• Migration policy tightening in Russia: Recently, in Russia, the political climate has become less welcoming for Central Asian workers, with growing societal and     institutional pressure to reduce their arrival. This might result in a decline in the number of migrant workers, exacerbated by the shrinking demand as well as the return of Russian labor from the war.

These dynamics point to structural factors that are predominantly negative and are expected to result in a decline in remittance inflows for CIS economies over the medium term, at least in relative, percentage of GDP terms. Given the significant reliance on this source of income, forecasters and policymakers should closely monitor the situation in the years ahead, especially in countries such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.