OGR Consultants recently conducted two technical assistance visits to Tajikistan

OGR Consultants recently conducted two technical assistance visits to Tajikistan to support macroeconomic modeling and forecasting capacity.

Katalin Szilágyi and Áron Iker conducted a training session for the Ministry of Finance, the National Bank of Tajikistan, and the Statistical Agency of Tajikistan as part of a SECO-financed initiative. The five-day on-site training focused on the Macroeconomic Planning and Management Project (MPMP) framework. It aimed to strengthen data collection, cleaning, and transformation procedures; recap and apply real GDP decomposition techniques introduced during earlier training; build the fiscal block of the model; and produce a baseline fiscal forecast and related analysis.

In a separate mission supported by the EBRD, Jiří Lukáč and Áron Iker worked with the National Bank of Tajikistan to review and enhance the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) as part of the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) framework. The training covered the introduction of the Kalman filter and calibration techniques, a review of historical filtration, and the role of analytic inputs such as cyclical positions and long-term trends in both the filtration and forecasting process.