OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- May 2025

 

May 6, 2025

Ethiopia

  • Reform benchmarks within IMF program have been so far fulfilled, improving the long-term growth outlook
  • Inflation will continue declining, as the central bank builds credibility
  • Sizeable parallel market spread reemerged, suggesting further depreciation

Mongolia

  • GDP growth will remain robust, fueled by accommodative fiscal policy and expanding mining production
  • Supportive fiscal policy and price liberalization will keep inflation high
  • Pressure on the tugrik has intensified recently as import demand begins to offset export revenues

Sri Lanka

  • Recovering remittances and the tourism sector will accelerate GDP growth in 2025–2026
  • Inflation will return to positive territory as the domestic demand recovers
  • The exchange rate will gradually depreciate, consistent with reviving inflation

Tajikistan

  • GDP growth will moderate, reflecting lower demand for migrant workers in Russia and slower mining sector growth
  • Inflation will pick up amid the energy tariff hikes and accelerating wage growth
  • We expect only a gradual somoni depreciation, reflecting central bank's ample FX reserves

Read the forecasts in details on our Macro Portal.

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Forecast updates in May:

  • Haiti
  • Sierra Leone
  • Ukraine