Ethiopia
- Reform benchmarks within IMF program have been so far fulfilled, improving the long-term growth outlook
- Inflation will continue declining, as the central bank builds credibility
- Sizeable parallel market spread reemerged, suggesting further depreciation
Mongolia
- GDP growth will remain robust, fueled by accommodative fiscal policy and expanding mining production
- Supportive fiscal policy and price liberalization will keep inflation high
- Pressure on the tugrik has intensified recently as import demand begins to offset export revenues
Sri Lanka
- Recovering remittances and the tourism sector will accelerate GDP growth in 2025–2026
- Inflation will return to positive territory as the domestic demand recovers
- The exchange rate will gradually depreciate, consistent with reviving inflation
Tajikistan
- GDP growth will moderate, reflecting lower demand for migrant workers in Russia and slower mining sector growth
- Inflation will pick up amid the energy tariff hikes and accelerating wage growth
- We expect only a gradual somoni depreciation, reflecting central bank's ample FX reserves
Read the forecasts in details on our Macro Portal.
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Forecast updates in May:
