OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- September 2023


September 5, 2023


  • The growth will slow in tandem with fiscal consolidation
  • Strong domestic demand will keep inflation well above the 5 % target in 2023–2024
  • The tenge will weaken due to high import demand and Russian ruble depreciation


  • Long-term growth outlook remains downbeat amid low investment
  • A one-off tariff adjustment next year could push inflation to above 10 %
  • The ariary will continue depreciating amid slow productivity growth and a high
    inflation differential

Sierra Leone

  • The economy continues to be strongly affected by high fiscal deficits and their monetization by the central bank
  • Inflation will decline gradually with fiscal tightening in 2024-2025, but will remain high on average in the long run


Forecast schedule

Recent forecast updates:
  • Kazakhstan
  • Madagascar
  • Sierra Leone
Upcoming forecast updates:
  • Azerbaijan (Sep 18)
  • Liberia (Sep 4)
  • Mozambique (Sep 18)