OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- September 2022


October 4, 2022

September forecast highlights:


  • Unstable political environment will remain the key hindrance to economic development
  • Misalignment of the exchange rate has not yet been fully corrected
  • The inflation will remain high in the next few years


  • LNG extraction sector and help from international institutions support solid growth outlook
  • Inflation will slow gradually amid dissipating external inflationary pressures
  • The metical will weaken in the short term to restore competitiveness


  • We expect GDP growth in Tajikistan to slow amid projected Russian protracted recession
  • The current level of somoni is not sustainable 
  • Inflation will accelerate after disinflationary factors fade away

Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

  • Haiti
  • Mozambique
  • Tajikistan

Upcoming forecast updates:

  • DR Congo (Oct 5)
  • Jordan (Oct 19)
  • Tunisia (Oct 19)
  • Ukraine (Oct 17)