OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- September 2021
October 4, 2021
September forecast highlights:
Georgia
- Economic activity surprised on the upside in 2021H1
- Inflation is high, we expect fast disinflation in 2022
- The NBG will follow the declining inflation with rate cuts
Ethiopia
- Growth decelerated severely in FY 2020/2021 to 1.7%
- Supply shocks and deficit monetization pushed inflation to 30% YoY in August
- We maintain pessimistic view on long-term outlook
Uzbekistan
- The economy withstood the pandemic relatively well
- Inflation will stay in low double digits by mid-2023
- The economy is set to grow more than 5% annually in the long-run
Forecast schedule:
August full updates:
- Georgia
- Ethiopia
- Uzbekistan
Coming in October:
- Moldova - Oct 18
- Mozambique - Oct 4
- Tajikistan - Oct 4
- Ukraine - Oct 18
