OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- October 2023


October 2, 2023


  • The economy will keep profiting
    from hydrocarbon export and trade rerouting
  • The inflation will decelerate in 2023, amid tight monetary policy stance
  • Strong external position will provide sufficient resilience to keep the currency peg


  • Slow reforms adoption put IMF program on hold, the government has turned to monetary financing
  • The central bank will accommodate higher inflation in the coming quarters
  • Monetization and high inflation will put pressure on the currency


  • LNG projects will boost economic growth, mainly starting from 2027
  • The FX stability will persist in the next months, keeping inflation low
  • The buffers in the economy are insufficient to withstand potential
    shocks in the future


Forecast schedule

Recent forecast updates:
  • Azerbaijan
  • Liberia
  • Mozambique
Upcoming forecast updates:
  • Burundi (Oct 16)
  • Guinea (Oct 2)
  • Haiti (Oct 2)