OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- October 2022


November 4, 2022

October forecast highlights:

DR Congo

  • The government, backed by international donors, has started implementing structural reforms
  • The currency has become overvalued amid moderating export prices and stronger USD
  • Inflation will accelerate above 10% on account of higher import prices and stay elevated afterward


  • Ongoing fiscal and structural reforms, the presence of the IMF, and strong external support will help maintain macroeconomic stability
  • Inflation will moderate inline with global commodity prices


  • A new four-year IMF program is expected to be adopted soon
  • Fiscal consolidation will slow economic growth and keep inflation high in the next two to three years before the reforms generate benefits and growth accelerates again 
  • The dinar will depreciate amid weak country fundamentals


  • Economic rebound will occur after the conflict ends
  • Inflation will decline only slowly in 2023, as debt monetization will continue for some time
  • We expect the hryvnia to remain pegged to the dollar, with one more adjustment in its level before the war ends

Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

  • DR Congo
  • Jordan
  • Tunisia
  • Ukraine

Upcoming forecast updates:

  • Angola (Nov 21)
  • Kyrgyzstan (Nov 7)
  • Uzbekistan (Nov 7)