OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- October 2022
November 4, 2022
October forecast highlights:
DR Congo
The government, backed by international donors, has started implementing structural reforms
The currency has become overvalued amid moderating export prices and stronger USD
Inflation will accelerate above 10% on account of higher import prices and stay elevated afterward
Jordan
Ongoing fiscal and structural reforms, the presence of the IMF, and strong external support will help maintain macroeconomic stability
Inflation will moderate inline with global commodity prices
Tunisia
A new four-year IMF program is expected to be adopted soon
Fiscal consolidation will slow economic growth and keep inflation high in the next two to three years before the reforms generate benefits and growth accelerates again
The dinar will depreciate amid weak country fundamentals
Ukraine
Economic rebound will occur after the conflict ends
Inflation will decline only slowly in 2023, as debt monetization will continue for some time
We expect the hryvnia to remain pegged to the dollar, with one more adjustment in its level before the war ends
