OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- October 2021


November 1, 2021

October forecast highlights:


  • New pro-EU government has attracted increased support from IFIs
  • We remain conservative about the country’s prospects
  • The NBM will continue to tighten monetary conditions to control elevated inflation


  • Delay in LNG projects have serious consequences for the fragile fiscal outlook
  • To avoid default, the country will need to embark on fiscal consolidation 
  • The overvalued currency will return to a depreciation path


  • The long-term outlook remains weak on account of large debt and limited financing sources
  • We expect price growth to slow in 2022 
  • Somoni will revert to a depreciation path next year


  • We expect slow but steady progress with the reform agenda
  • The exchange rate is now overvalued due to foreign inflows
  • In the long term, the reforms will bring mild productivity growth and real appreciation

Forecast schedule:

October full updates:

  • Moldova
  • Mozambique
  • Tajikistan
  • Ukraine

Coming in November:

  • Azerbaijan - Nov 8
  • Kyrgyzstan - Nov 8
  • Laos - Nov 22