OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- October 2021

October forecast highlights:

Moldova

• New pro-EU government has attracted increased support from IFIs
• We remain conservative about the country’s prospects
• The NBM will continue to tighten monetary conditions to control elevated inflation

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Mozambique

• Delay in LNG projects have serious consequences for the fragile fiscal outlook
• To avoid default, the country will need to embark on fiscal consolidation 
• The overvalued currency will return to a depreciation path

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Tajikistan

• The long-term outlook remains weak on account of large debt and limited financing sources
• We expect price growth to slow in 2022 
• Somoni will revert to a depreciation path next year

Ukraine

• We expect slow but steady progress with the reform agenda
• The exchange rate is now overvalued due to foreign inflows
• In the long term, the reforms will bring mild productivity growth and real appreciation

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Forecast schedule:

October full updates:

• Moldova
• Mozambique
• Tajikistan
• Ukraine

Coming in November:

• Azerbaijan - Nov 8
• Kyrgyzstan - Nov 8
• Laos - Nov 22