OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- October 2020

October forecast highlights:

Laos

• Lao economy has been pushed towards sovereign default by external shocks
• The economy will contract by over 2% this year
• China likely to eventually provide necessary financing

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Ukraine

• Ukraine managed to secure avital IMF program
• Hryvnia will continue weakening due to recovering imports
• Inflation will pick up above the 5% target in 2021

Uzbekistan

• Growth will dip below zero this year but recover in 2021
• Anti-crisis fiscal package partially financed by borrowing from IFIs
• Inflation will remain high over the forecast

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Forecast schedule:

October full updates:

• Laos
• Ukraine
• Uzbekistan

Coming in November:

• Georgia - Nov 2
• Kyrgyzstan - Nov 16
• Mozambique - Nov 16
• Myanmar - Nov 2