OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- October 2019


November 4, 2019

October forecast highlights:


  • Growth is strong, driven by pre-election spending
  • Upcoming elections and president's rhetoric might derail inflation decline to target
  • Significant risks stemming from fiscal sector


  • Macroeconomic outlook remains positive but political risks are sizeable
  • Country benefits from relocation of garment production from China
  • Inflation surge driven by short term factors


  • President Zelensky consolidated power
  • Negotiations about anew IMF program under way
  • The NBU is continuing to pursue tight policy aimed at building up credibility

Forecast schedule:

October full updates:

  • Belarus
  • Myanmar
  • Ukraine

Coming in November:

  • Haiti - Nov 18
  • Madagascar - Nov 4
  • Sierra Leone - Nov 4