OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- October 2019

October forecast highlights:

Belarus

• Growth is strong, driven by pre-election spending
• Upcoming elections and president's rhetoric might derail inflation decline to target
• Significant risks stemming from fiscal sector

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Myanmar

• Macroeconomic outlook remains positive but political risks are sizeable
• Country benefits from relocation of garment production from China
• Inflation surge driven by short term factors

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Ukraine

• President Zelensky consolidated power
• Negotiations about anew IMF program under way
• The NBU is continuing to pursue tight policy aimed at building up credibility

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Forecast schedule:

October full updates:

• Belarus
• Myanmar
• Ukraine

Coming in November:

• Haiti - Nov 18
• Madagascar - Nov 4
• Sierra Leone - Nov 4

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