OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- November 2023


November 3, 2023


  • Substantial increases in aid inflows and policy tightening will help restore macroeconomic stability
  • The disinflation will be gradual, and inflation will stabilize at around 9–10 %
  • We expect another exchange rate adjustment imminently


  • Economic growth will remain strong, driven by the expanding mining sector
  • Inflation will increase amid reviving domestic demand and monetary financing
  • The currency level is not in line with fundamentals and will get on depreciation path from 2024


  • International support improved short-term outlook, but long-term prospects remain weak
  • Inflation will hover around 12%, due to lack of central bank's disinflation commitment
  • The currency will remain stable in the next few months, backed by massive FX inflows


Forecast schedule

Recent forecast updates:
  • Burundi
  • Guinea
  • Haiti
Upcoming forecast updates:
  • Mongolia (Nov 6)
  • Ukraine (Nov 20)
  • Uzbekistan (Nov 6)