OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- November 2022

November forecast highlights:

Angola

• The overall outlook for Angola has improved due to higher expected oil income
• The exchange rate will continue to depreciate due to the upcoming increase in external debt service
• Inflation will remain in double figures, prone to large swings

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Kyrgyz Republic

• The Kyrgyz economy has accelerated above expectations in 2022 driven by temporary FX inflows from Russia
• The currency will be stable over the next few months, supported by delayed gold exports
• We expect the CB to start cutting rates soon, as inflation has reached its peak

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Uzbekistan

• Fiscal support and high FX inflows have boosted economic growth in 2022
• Expected price liberalization and persistently high expectations will keep inflation high 
• We expect the FX inflows to remain present for a few more quarters and help maintain broad stability of the som

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Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

• Angola
• Kyrgyz Republic
• Uzbekistan

Upcoming forecast updates:

• Mauritania (Dec 14)
• Mongolia (Dec 12)
• Vietnam (Dec 12)

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