OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- November 2022


December 3, 2022

November forecast highlights:


  • The overall outlook for Angola has improved due to higher expected oil income
  • The exchange rate will continue to depreciate due to the upcoming increase in external debt service
  • Inflation will remain in double figures, prone to large swings

Kyrgyz Republic

  • The Kyrgyz economy has accelerated above expectations in 2022 driven by temporary FX inflows from Russia
  • The currency will be stable over the next few months, supported by delayed gold exports
  • We expect the CB to start cutting rates soon, as inflation has reached its peak


  • Fiscal support and high FX inflows have boosted economic growth in 2022
  • Expected price liberalization and persistently high expectations will keep inflation high 
  • We expect the FX inflows to remain present for a few more quarters and help maintain broad stability of the som

Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

  • Angola
  • Kyrgyz Republic
  • Uzbekistan

Upcoming forecast updates:

  • Mauritania (Dec 14)
  • Mongolia (Dec 12)
  • Vietnam (Dec 12)