OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- November 2021


December 1, 2021

November forecast highlights:


  • The long-term outlook has improved on account of a better outlook for oil prices
  • Improvements in the terms of trade lowered the pressure on the currency
  • Rising commodity prices will drive inflation upwards


  • Recovery is lagging due to reduced gold production, supply constraints
  • The NBKR has tightened only moderately compared to the uptick in inflation 
  • The som will return to a steady depreciation path


  • Large fiscal consolidation program has been adopted to avoid default
  • We expect further exchange rate adjustment 
  • Economic growth is expected to remain solid on account of rising energy production

Forecast schedule:

November full updates:

  • Azerbaijan
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Laos

Coming in December:

  • Madagascar - Dec 13
  • Mongolia - Dec 13
  • Sierra Leone- Dec 13