OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- November 2021
December 1, 2021
November forecast highlights:
Azerbaijan
- The long-term outlook has improved on account of a better outlook for oil prices
- Improvements in the terms of trade lowered the pressure on the currency
- Rising commodity prices will drive inflation upwards
Kyrgyzstan
- Recovery is lagging due to reduced gold production, supply constraints
- The NBKR has tightened only moderately compared to the uptick in inflation
- The som will return to a steady depreciation path
Laos
- Large fiscal consolidation program has been adopted to avoid default
- We expect further exchange rate adjustment
- Economic growth is expected to remain solid on account of rising energy production
Forecast schedule:
November full updates:
Coming in December:
- Madagascar - Dec 13
- Mongolia - Dec 13
- Sierra Leone- Dec 13
