OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- November 2020

November forecast highlights:

Georgia

• Recovery in 2020Q3 was swift due to surging remittances and fiscal stimulus
• Lari remains overvalued
• Fiscal consolidation will restrict growth in 2021-23

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Kyrgyzstan

• Political unrest will have only short-term negative impact
• High debt burden will necessitate fiscal consolidation in 2021-22
• Inflation will drop below 5% due to weak demand

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Mozambique

• Risk of debt distress remains high and fiscal consolidation inevitable
• Fiscal austerity will slowdown economic recovery
• Timing of LNG projects and their benefits are increasingly uncertain

Myanmar

• Recovery in 2021 will be slower than expected before
• Recent kyat appreciation will be corrected gradually
• Long-term growth outlook remains positive

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Forecast schedule:

November full updates:

• Georgia
• Kyrgyzstan
• Mozambique
• Myanmar

Coming in December:

• Belarus - Dec 14
• Mongolia - Dec 14