OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- November 2020


December 3, 2020

November forecast highlights:


  • Recovery in 2020Q3 was swift due to surging remittances and fiscal stimulus
  • Lari remains overvalued
  • Fiscal consolidation will restrict growth in 2021-23


  • Political unrest will have only short-term negative impact
  • High debt burden will necessitate fiscal consolidation in 2021-22
  • Inflation will drop below 5% due to weak demand


  • Risk of debt distress remains high and fiscal consolidation inevitable
  • Fiscal austerity will slowdown economic recovery
  • Timing of LNG projects and their benefits are increasingly uncertain


  • Recovery in 2021 will be slower than expected before
  • Recent kyat appreciation will be corrected gradually
  • Long-term growth outlook remains positive

Forecast schedule:

November full updates:

  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mozambique
  • Myanmar

Coming in December:

  • Belarus - Dec 14
  • Mongolia - Dec 14