OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- May 2022

May forecast highlights:

Ethiopia

• The military conflict and a severe drought will suppress the economic growth
• The birr remains overvalued and the parallel market spread has widened
• Inflation is elevated due to domestic and foreign supply shocks

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Kyrgyzstan

• Declining remittances and trade will push the economy into recession in 2022
• We expect the central bank to be cautious about loosening monetary policy 
• Inflation will stay elevated in the coming quarters, fueled by growth in commodity prices

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Mongolia

• The longer-term outlook is promising in light of strong commodity export potential
• Monetary policy will need to be tightened to combat mounting price pressures 
• The tugrik remains overvalued and is expected to continue to depreciate

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Myanmar

• The economic activity has been rebounding, but is still 20% below the 2019 level
• Without access to IFI financing, the authorities reverted to monetize debt 
• The kyat is expected to continue weakening and inflation will accelerate

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Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

• Ethiopia
• Kyrgyzstan
• Mongolia
• Myanmar

Upcoming forecast updates:

• Madagascar (Jun 20)
• Sierra Leone (Jun 20)
• Uzbekistan (June 20)