OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- May 2022


May 31, 2022

May forecast highlights:


  • The military conflict and a severe drought will suppress the economic growth
  • The birr remains overvalued and the parallel market spread has widened
  • Inflation is elevated due to domestic and foreign supply shocks


  • Declining remittances and trade will push the economy into recession in 2022
  • We expect the central bank to be cautious about loosening monetary policy 
  • Inflation will stay elevated in the coming quarters, fueled by growth in commodity prices


  • The longer-term outlook is promising in light of strong commodity export potential
  • Monetary policy will need to be tightened to combat mounting price pressures 
  • The tugrik remains overvalued and is expected to continue to depreciate


  • The economic activity has been rebounding, but is still 20% below the 2019 level
  • Without access to IFI financing, the authorities reverted to monetize debt 
  • The kyat is expected to continue weakening and inflation will accelerate

Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

  • Ethiopia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Myanmar

Upcoming forecast updates:

  • Madagascar (Jun 20)
  • Sierra Leone (Jun 20)
  • Uzbekistan (June 20)