OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- May 2021

May forecast highlights:

DRC

• Higher commodity prices and foreign inflows helped stabilize the currency
• Mining sector will support economic growth in the short-term
• Inflation will decrease on the back of tighter policies

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Madagascar

• Recovery will be sluggish due to slow vaccination rollout
• Strong IFI and bilateral support expected to provide necessary financing for planned runup in public investments
• IMF program will support macroeconomic stability

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Kyrgyzstan

• Disputes over the Kumtor gold mine will slow down recovery in 2021
• Inflation will decline towards the central bank target after temporary factors fade away
• Long-term growth outlook continues to be driven by the mining sector

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Forecast schedule:

May full updates:

• DRC
• Kyrgyzstan
• Madagascar

Coming in June:

• Mongolia - June 7
• Myanmar (interim) - June 11
• Uzbekistan - June 21