OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- May 2021


June 3, 2021

May forecast highlights:


  • Higher commodity prices and foreign inflows helped stabilize the currency
  • Mining sector will support economic growth in the short-term
  • Inflation will decrease on the back of tighter policies


  • Recovery will be sluggish due to slow vaccination rollout
  • Strong IFI and bilateral support expected to provide necessary financing for planned runup in public investments
  • IMF program will support macroeconomic stability


  • Disputes over the Kumtor gold mine will slow down recovery in 2021
  • Inflation will decline towards the central bank target after temporary factors fade away
  • Long-term growth outlook continues to be driven by the mining sector

Forecast schedule:

May full updates:

  • DRC
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Madagascar

Coming in June:

  • Mongolia - June 7
  • Myanmar (interim) - June 11
  • Uzbekistan - June 21