OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- May 2020


June 3, 2020

May forecast highlights:


  • GDP expected to decline by about 5% this year
  • The central bank was forced to allow the som to weaken
  • After a temporary rise, inflation will decline due to weak demand


  • Global slowdown, falling export prices, and domestic restrictions will cause recession in 2020
  • Declining GDP and widening budget deficit increase risk of debt distress
  • Central bank will maintain tight stance to support the exchange rate

Forecast schedule:

May full updates:

  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mozambique

Coming in June:

  • Myanmar - June 22
  • Uzbekistan - June 8