OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- May 2020

May forecast highlights:

Kyrgyzstan

• GDP expected to decline by about 5% this year
• The central bank was forced to allow the som to weaken
• After a temporary rise, inflation will decline due to weak demand

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Mozambique

• Global slowdown, falling export prices, and domestic restrictions will cause recession in 2020
• Declining GDP and widening budget deficit increase risk of debt distress
• Central bank will maintain tight stance to support the exchange rate

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Forecast schedule:

May full updates:

• Kyrgyzstan
• Mozambique

Coming in June:

• Myanmar - June 22
• Uzbekistan - June 8

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