OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- March 2023
April 11, 2023
March forecast highlights
Moldova
- Western support helped prevent a full-blown crisis after destabilization attempts
- GDP contracted in 2022, but it is expected to normalize this year. Disinflation and the easing cycle will continue
- We anticipate the leu to weaken as some war-related FX inflows fade away
Sierra Leone
- Heavy deficit monetization has put pressure on the leone, which is expected to continue at least until the June elections
- Growth will remain subdued this year but will accelerate later, supported by foreign investment
- Inflation will start declining but will remain well above 10% over the forecast horizon
Tajikistan
- The Tajik economy was supported by strong positive spillovers from Russia in 2022
- The inflation rate will increase to 8.5% YoY by early 2024 due to depreciation and phasing out of administrative measures
- The somoni will continue to depreciate due to a negative Russian outlook
Uzbekistan
- We expect GDP growth to moderate this year amid the dissipation of positive external factors
- Inflation will fluctuate around 11% YoY in the next two years, amid the liberalization of utility prices
- We expect the som to continue depreciating by about 7% annually
Forecast schedule
Recent forecast updates:
- Moldova
- Sierra Leone
- Tajikistan
- Uzbekistan
Upcoming forecast updates:
- Georgia (Apr 17)
- Madagascar (Apr 17)
- Mozambique (Apr 3)