OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- March 2023


April 11, 2023

March forecast highlights


  • Western support helped prevent a full-blown crisis after destabilization attempts
  • GDP contracted in 2022, but it is expected to normalize this year. Disinflation and the easing cycle will continue
  • We anticipate the leu to weaken as some war-related FX inflows fade away

Sierra Leone

  • Heavy deficit monetization has put pressure on the leone, which is expected to continue at least until the June elections
  • Growth will remain subdued this year but will accelerate later, supported by foreign investment
  • Inflation will start declining but will remain well above 10% over the forecast horizon


  • The Tajik economy was supported by strong positive spillovers from Russia in 2022
  • The inflation rate will increase to 8.5% YoY by early 2024 due to depreciation and phasing out of administrative measures
  • The somoni will continue to depreciate due to a negative Russian outlook


  • We expect GDP growth to moderate this year amid the dissipation of positive external factors
  • Inflation will fluctuate around 11% YoY in the next two years, amid the liberalization of utility prices
  • We expect the som to continue depreciating by about 7% annually

Forecast schedule

Recent forecast updates:

  • Moldova
  • Sierra Leone
  • Tajikistan
  • Uzbekistan

Upcoming forecast updates:

  • Georgia (Apr 17)
  • Madagascar (Apr 17)
  • Mozambique (Apr 3)