OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- March 2021

March forecast highlights:

Georgia

• The central bank will have to keep rates high due to inflationary pressures
• Large macroeconomic imbalances mostly covered by official foreign borrowing
• Tense political situation unlikely to have adverse impact on the economy

Moldova

• Political crisis has intensified; political polarization likely to remain strong
• Slow rebound in 2021 to be followed by meagre long-term growth
• Inflation is set to return to the target

Myanmar

• Military coup sparked public unrest, economic situation has deteriorated
• Investors' confidence shaken and reforms stalled
• Country outlook worsened substantially

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Forecast schedule:

March full updates:

• Georgia
• Moldova
• Myanmar

Coming in April:

• Myanmar (interim) - Apr 9
• Sierra Leone - Apr 6
• Tajikistan - Apr 6
• Ukraine - Apr 19
• Uzbekistan (interim) - Apr 9

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