OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- July 2022


August 6, 2022

July forecast highlights:


  • The economy has benefited from temporary factors, but our overall long-term outlook is pessimistic
  • Overvalued currency and weakening demand will help bring down inflation
  • The central bank will keep rates elevated due to a high country risk premium


  • High demand together with rising global prices keep inflation above target
  • We expect the economy to slow amid declining demand and a mildly tighter fiscal stance
  • The long-run growth outlook remains strong thanks to access to foreign funding


  • Long-run growth outlook has deteriorated given declining investor confidence
  • NBM has hiked the policy rate and we expect inflation to start declining in the fall 
  • The strongly overvalued currency will adjust swiftly in 2023

Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

  • Armenia
  • Georgia
  • Moldova

Upcoming forecast updates:

  • Kazakhstan (Aug 8)
  • Myanmar (Aug 8)
  • Uzbekistan (interim, Aug 12)