OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- July 2022
August 6, 2022
July forecast highlights:
Armenia
- The economy has benefited from temporary factors, but our overall long-term outlook is pessimistic
- Overvalued currency and weakening demand will help bring down inflation
- The central bank will keep rates elevated due to a high country risk premium
Georgia
- High demand together with rising global prices keep inflation above target
- We expect the economy to slow amid declining demand and a mildly tighter fiscal stance
- The long-run growth outlook remains strong thanks to access to foreign funding
Moldova
- Long-run growth outlook has deteriorated given declining investor confidence
- NBM has hiked the policy rate and we expect inflation to start declining in the fall
- The strongly overvalued currency will adjust swiftly in 2023
Forecast schedule:
Recent forecast updates:
Upcoming forecast updates:
- Kazakhstan (Aug 8)
- Myanmar (Aug 8)
- Uzbekistan (interim, Aug 12)
