OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- July 2020


August 6, 2020

July forecast highlights:


  • GDP dropped by 6% YoY in 2020Q2 due to lockdown and oil production cut
  • Forex interventions have kept the currency stable
  • Monetary policy will only ease cautiously to safeguard exchange rate stability


  • The political situation remains highly unstable
  • The government has restarted negotiations with the IMF
  • Monetary financing of fiscal deficit puts pressure on the exchange rate


  • The pandemic and oil production cuts imply 4% decline in GDP in 2020
  • Tight NBK policy and forex interventions have supported the tenge, but further adjustment is expected


  • Inflation has dropped sharply, driven by food and fuel prices
  • Long-run outlook worsened due to delays in key large investment projects
  • Risks are rising that authorities will resort to overly easy policies

Forecast schedule:

July full updates:

  • Azerbaijan
  • Haiti
  • Kazakhstan
  • Mongolia

Coming in August:

  • Armenia - August 17