OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- July 2020
August 6, 2020
July forecast highlights:
Azerbaijan
- GDP dropped by 6% YoY in 2020Q2 due to lockdown and oil production cut
- Forex interventions have kept the currency stable
- Monetary policy will only ease cautiously to safeguard exchange rate stability
Haiti
- The political situation remains highly unstable
- The government has restarted negotiations with the IMF
- Monetary financing of fiscal deficit puts pressure on the exchange rate
Kazakhstan
- The pandemic and oil production cuts imply 4% decline in GDP in 2020
- Tight NBK policy and forex interventions have supported the tenge, but further adjustment is expected
Mongolia
- Inflation has dropped sharply, driven by food and fuel prices
- Long-run outlook worsened due to delays in key large investment projects
- Risks are rising that authorities will resort to overly easy policies
Forecast schedule:
July full updates:
- Azerbaijan
- Haiti
- Kazakhstan
- Mongolia
Coming in August:
