OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- January 2023
February 5, 2023
January forecast highlights:
Armenia
- Armenia is benefitting from Russian FX inflows and rerouting of Russian trade
- Our overall long-term outlook is still pessimistic given tight links to the Russian economy
- The expected depreciation of the dram will lead to an uptick in inflationary pressures
Azerbaijan
- We expect the growth to moderate, amid normalizing export prices and fading FX inflows from Russia
- Inflation will moderate due to dissipating supply shocks and normalizing food prices
- Large FX buffers will allow for retaining currency peg in the next few years
Guinea
- The long-term growth outlook remains solid on the back of large ongoing investments
- Price liberalization will keep the inflation in double figures over the forecast horizon
- The franc is expected to return to a depreciation path, amid high inflation differential
Forecast schedule:
Recent forecast updates:
Upcoming forecast updates:
- Costa Rica (Feb 8)
- Kazakhstan (Feb 20)
- Myanmar (Feb 6)
