OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- January 2023


February 5, 2023

January forecast highlights:


  • Armenia is benefitting from Russian FX inflows and rerouting of Russian trade
  • Our overall long-term outlook is still pessimistic given tight links to the Russian economy
  • The expected depreciation of the dram will lead to an uptick in inflationary pressures


  • We expect the growth to moderate, amid normalizing export prices and fading FX inflows from Russia
  • Inflation will moderate due to dissipating supply shocks and normalizing food prices
  • Large FX buffers will allow for retaining currency peg in the next few years


  • The long-term growth outlook remains solid on the back of large ongoing investments
  • Price liberalization will keep the inflation in double figures over the forecast horizon 
  • The franc is expected to return to a depreciation path, amid high inflation differential

Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

  • Armenia
  • Azerbaijan
  • Guinea

Upcoming forecast updates:

  • Costa Rica (Feb 8)
  • Kazakhstan (Feb 20)
  • Myanmar (Feb 6)