OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- January 2022

January forecast highlights:

Madagascar

• The authorities accepted IMF program to support structural reforms
• We maintain moderately positive view for the coming years
• Inflation will stay elevated until 2024

‍

Mongolia

• The short-term growth outlook is positive on account of high commodity prices
• Overly supportive fiscal policies may put public debt on an unsustainable path 
• Inflation will remain elevated in the short run

‍

Myanmar

• The political situation in Myanmar has stabilized
• Reverse in the reform progress leads to weak long-term prospects 
• Deficit monetization will keep inflation in double figures

Sierra Leone

• Economic activity is recovering, but still reliant​on external financial support
• We see the long-term outlook as positive 
• Given the large external imbalances, we estimate the exchange rate to be moderately overvalued

‍

‍

Forecast schedule:

November full updates:

• Madagascar
• Mongolia
• Myanmar
• Sierra Leone

Coming in December:

• Armenia - Jan 31
• Georgia - Feb 14
• Haiti - Jan 31
• Kazakhstan - Jan 31
• Uzbekistan - Jan 31