OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- January 2022


February 4, 2022

January forecast highlights:


  • The authorities accepted IMF program to support structural reforms
  • We maintain moderately positive view for the coming years
  • Inflation will stay elevated until 2024


  • The short-term growth outlook is positive on account of high commodity prices
  • Overly supportive fiscal policies may put public debt on an unsustainable path 
  • Inflation will remain elevated in the short run


  • The political situation in Myanmar has stabilized
  • Reverse in the reform progress leads to weak long-term prospects 
  • Deficit monetization will keep inflation in double figures

Sierra Leone

  • Economic activity is recovering, but still reliant​on external financial support
  • We see the long-term outlook as positive 
  • Given the large external imbalances, we estimate the exchange rate to be moderately overvalued

Forecast schedule:

November full updates:

  • Madagascar
  • Mongolia
  • Myanmar
  • Sierra Leone

Coming in December:

  • Armenia - Jan 31
  • Georgia - Feb 14
  • Haiti - Jan 31
  • Kazakhstan - Jan 31
  • Uzbekistan - Jan 31