OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- February 2023
March 1, 2023
February forecast highlights
Costa Rica
- Fiscal reforms are needed to stabilize public finances
- We expect the economic growth to stabilize at about 2.5%, below the long-term average
- The colon will depreciate over the next few months to adjust for its current misalignment
Kazakhstan
- Oil sector expansion supports medium-term outlook, but non-oil sector prospects remains bleak
- The restrictive monetary stance with normalizing global commodity prices will help
reduce price growth - We expect the tenge to revert to a moderate depreciation path amid lack of productivity growth
Myanmar
- The political uncertainty in Myanmar is not showing signs of stabilizing any time soon
- Inflation will remain elevated in 2023–2025 due to heavy reliance on deficit monetization
- The CBM will continue with the step devaluations to
safeguard FX reserves and maintain some competitiveness
Forecast schedule
Recent forecast updates:
- Costa Rica
- Kazakhstan
- Myanmar
Upcoming forecast updates:
- Tajikistan (Mar 6)
- Uzbekistan (Mar 6)
- Moldova (Mar 20)
- Sierra Leone (Mar 20)