OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- February 2023

February forecast highlights

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Costa Rica

• Fiscal reforms are needed to stabilize public finances
• We expect the economic growth to stabilize at about 2.5%, below the long-term average
• The colon will depreciate over the next few months to adjust for its current misalignment

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Kazakhstan

• Oil sector expansion supports medium-term outlook, but non-oil sector prospects remains bleak
• The restrictive monetary stance with normalizing global commodity prices will help
  reduce price growth
• We expect the tenge to revert to a moderate depreciation path amid lack of productivity growth

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Myanmar

• The political uncertainty in Myanmar is not showing signs of stabilizing any time soon
• Inflation will remain elevated in 2023–2025 due to heavy reliance on deficit monetization
• The CBM will continue with the step devaluations to
  safeguard FX reserves and maintain some competitiveness

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Forecast schedule

Recent forecast updates:

• Costa Rica
• Kazakhstan
• Myanmar

Upcoming forecast updates:

• Tajikistan (Mar 6)
• Uzbekistan (Mar 6)
• Moldova (Mar 20)
• Sierra Leone (Mar 20)

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