OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- February 2023


March 1, 2023

February forecast highlights

Costa Rica

  • Fiscal reforms are needed to stabilize public finances
  • We expect the economic growth to stabilize at about 2.5%, below the long-term average
  • The colon will depreciate over the next few months to adjust for its current misalignment


  • Oil sector expansion supports medium-term outlook, but non-oil sector prospects remains bleak
  • The restrictive monetary stance with normalizing global commodity prices will help
    reduce price growth
  • We expect the tenge to revert to a moderate depreciation path amid lack of productivity growth


  • The political uncertainty in Myanmar is not showing signs of stabilizing any time soon
  • Inflation will remain elevated in 2023–2025 due to heavy reliance on deficit monetization
  • The CBM will continue with the step devaluations to
    safeguard FX reserves and maintain some competitiveness

Forecast schedule

Recent forecast updates:

  • Costa Rica
  • Kazakhstan
  • Myanmar

Upcoming forecast updates:

  • Tajikistan (Mar 6)
  • Uzbekistan (Mar 6)
  • Moldova (Mar 20)
  • Sierra Leone (Mar 20)