OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- February 2020


March 3, 2020

Webinar on the impact of the coronavirus

OGResearch will hold a webinar on the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy. The webinar will take approximately 30 minutes and will cover the current situation,outlook, and implications for emerging markets.

The webinar will take place on Tuesday, March 10, at 4 p.m. CET (10 a.m. EST). Click here to register and receive slides and recording after the webinar. You can also connect directly by clicking here when the webinar starts.

February forecast highlights:


  • Fast GDP growth is supported by strong domestic consumption
  • Solid growth and are form agenda have lowered risk premium
  • Inflation remains well below the target


  • Current account surplus and high FX buffers allow for stable currency
  • Inflation has been low lately
  • We see no room for further CBA rate cuts


  • Despite currency weakening, FX reserves remain low
  • The government has started much needed fiscal consolidation
  • Profitability of large investment projects remains the key risk


  • Current account deficit improved due to garment exports and tourism
  • Inflation is high but slowing on account of stable exchange rate
  • Long term outlook remains solid on the back of expected FDI inflows


  • The future of the Rogun HPP is increasingly uncertain and completion date has been postponed
  • In January, the NBT has partly reverted previous policy easing
  • The somoni remains overvalued

Forecast schedule:

February full updates:

  • Armenia
  • Azerbaijan
  • Laos
  • Myanmar
  • Tajikistan

Coming in March:

  • Ukraine - Mar 23
  • Uzbekistan - Mar 11