OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- December 2023


December 6, 2023


  • Strong performance of the mining sector improved short-term prospects
  • Inflation will decline at a
    slower pace amid accelerating domestic demand
  • We expect the currency to start weakening in the second half of the next year


  • Foreign financial support will remain steady, especially in 2024
  • Inflation will rise in 2024 due to the reviving domestic demand and wage pressures
  • We expect gradual removals of FX restrictions and a return to floating exchange rate


  • The economy enjoys robust growth, driven by expansionary fiscal policy
  • Expected tariff adjustments and an expansionary fiscal stance will push inflation above 10% in 2024
  • We estimate the som to be overvalued

Read the forecasts in details on our Macro Portal.


Forecast schedule

Recent forecast updates:
  • Mongolia
  • Ukraine
  • Uzbekistan
Upcoming forecast updates:
  • Myanmar (Dec 11)
  • Iraq (Dec 18)