OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- December 2022

December forecast highlights:

Mongolia

• Mongolia will benefit from large investments in the primary sector and improved mining prospects
• We expect the inflation to normalize only slowly
• Tugrik will continue to depreciate at a moderate pace amid high import needs and persistent inflation

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Mauritania

• Higher than previously expected natural gas prices have improved the long-term outlook as they will boost exports
• Inflation is at its peak and will decelerate swiftly next year
• The exchange rate is currently overvalued and will be allowed to correct once inflation declines

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Vietnam

• We maintain a positive long-run outlook thanks to IFIs support and strong FDI inflows
• We see the dong close to its fundamental value given the strong economic recovery 
• High energy prices along with restored demand will push inflation above the SBV’s target temporarily

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Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

• Mongolia
• Mauritania
• Vietnam

Upcoming forecast updates:

• Armenia (Jan 23)
• Azerbaijan (Jan 19)
• Guinea (Jan 25)

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