OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- December 2022


January 4, 2022

December forecast highlights:


  • Mongolia will benefit from large investments in the primary sector and improved mining prospects
  • We expect the inflation to normalize only slowly
  • Tugrik will continue to depreciate at a moderate pace amid high import needs and persistent inflation


  • Higher than previously expected natural gas prices have improved the long-term outlook as they will boost exports
  • Inflation is at its peak and will decelerate swiftly next year
  • The exchange rate is currently overvalued and will be allowed to correct once inflation declines


  • We maintain a positive long-run outlook thanks to IFIs support and strong FDI inflows
  • We see the dong close to its fundamental value given the strong economic recovery 
  • High energy prices along with restored demand will push inflation above the SBV’s target temporarily

Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

  • Mongolia
  • Mauritania
  • Vietnam

Upcoming forecast updates:

  • Armenia (Jan 23)
  • Azerbaijan (Jan 19)
  • Guinea (Jan 25)