OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- December 2019
January 3, 2020
December forecast highlights:
Georgia
- The lari weakened due to increasing tensions with Russia
- We expect the currency to stabilize and inflation to decline in 2020
- Growth expected to remain solid in the next two years, driven by external factors
Kyrgyzstan
- Growth picked up, driven by the Kumtor gold mine
- Food prices pushed inflation up in 2019, but non-food inflation is subdued
- In the absence of major reforms, long-term growth outlook remains meager
Mongolia
- Major delays and cost increases announced for Oyu Tolgoi mine
- Declining coal prices will weigh on exchange rate
- Inflation is declining as the impact of Chinese swine flu dissipates
Mozambique
- Over USD 1 billion donated to deal with the damage caused by two cyclones
- The country started to address public debt issues and moved out of default
- Growth will remain slow in the coming years
Forecast schedule:
December full updates:
- Georgia
- Kyrgyzstan
- Mongolia
- Mozambique
Coming in January:
