OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- December 2019


January 3, 2020

December forecast highlights:


  • The lari weakened due to increasing tensions with Russia
  • We expect the currency to stabilize and inflation to decline in 2020
  • Growth expected to remain solid in the next two years, driven by external factors


  • Growth picked up, driven by the Kumtor gold mine
  • Food prices pushed inflation up in 2019, but non-food inflation is subdued
  • In the absence of major reforms, long-term growth outlook remains meager


  • Major delays and cost increases announced for Oyu Tolgoi mine
  • Declining coal prices will weigh on exchange rate
  • Inflation is declining as the impact of Chinese swine flu dissipates


  • Over USD 1 billion donated to deal with the damage caused by two cyclones
  • The country started to address public debt issues and moved out of default
  • Growth will remain slow in the coming years

Forecast schedule:

December full updates:

  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Mozambique

Coming in January:

  • Kazakhstan - Jan 13