OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- August 2022


September 7, 2022

August forecast highlights:


  • Growth prospects are weaker due to an impaired investment climate
  • The worse fundamentals have implied depreciation pressure on the tenge
  • Inflation is expected to slow only gradually amid lasting external pressures


  • The economy has been rebounding after the sharp contraction after the 2021 coup
  • The external debt is unsustainable
  • The kyat is expected to continue weakening in the near future


  • We expect the Uzbek economy to slow in 2022–2023 amid war in Ukraine
  • The central bank will keep the interest rate elevated due to high inflation expectations 
  • We evaluate the som as fairly valued

Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

  • Kazakhstan
  • Myanmar
  • Uzbekistan

Upcoming forecast updates:

  • Haiti (Sep 5)
  • Mozambique (Sep 19)
  • Tajikistan (Sep 5)