OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- August 2022

August forecast highlights:

Kazakhstan

• Growth prospects are weaker due to an impaired investment climate
• The worse fundamentals have implied depreciation pressure on the tenge
• Inflation is expected to slow only gradually amid lasting external pressures

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Myanmar

• The economy has been rebounding after the sharp contraction after the 2021 coup
• The external debt is unsustainable
• The kyat is expected to continue weakening in the near future

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Uzbekistan

• We expect the Uzbek economy to slow in 2022–2023 amid war in Ukraine
• The central bank will keep the interest rate elevated due to high inflation expectations 
• We evaluate the som as fairly valued

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Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

• Kazakhstan
• Myanmar
• Uzbekistan

Upcoming forecast updates:

• Haiti (Sep 5)
• Mozambique (Sep 19)
• Tajikistan (Sep 5)

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