OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- August 2019


September 2, 2019

August forecast highlights:


  • Growth accelerated, driven by a surge in remittances
  • The new government started reforms to reduce corruption and improve business environment
  • Agreement with the IMF paved way for substantial international support


  • The economy has performed better than expected
  • Fast export growth is supported by production
  • Decisions on tariffs by EU and the US administration still pending


  • Growth is set to slow in the coming quarters
  • International reserves are declining and pressure on the exchange rate is growing
  • Recent rise in inflation driven by short-term supply shocks

Forecast schedule:

August full updates:

  • Armenia
  • Cambodia
  • Tajikistan

Coming next month:

  • Moldova - Sep 2
  • Uzbekistan - Sep 16