OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- April 2022
May 4, 2022
April forecast highlights:
Azerbaijan
- Azerbaijan will benefit from high energy prices
- We expect the windfall revenue to be largely channeled into SOFAZ
- Inflation will peak at around 15 % later this year
Mozambique
- Country outlook has improved due to donor support and IMF program
- We remain skeptical about prospects for the non-mining sector
- Both internal and global inflation pressures are building up
Ukraine
- The future of Ukraine depends predominantly on the outcome of the war and international support
- Our baseline projection represents the scenario with risks equally distributed on both sides
- The NBU will keep using capital controls
Forecast schedule:
Recent forecast updates:
- Azerbaijan
- Mozambique
- Ukraine
Upcoming forecast updates:
- Ethiopia (May 23)
- Kyrgyzstan(May 9)
- Mongolia (May 23)
- Myanmar (May9)