OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- April 2022

April forecast highlights:

Azerbaijan

• Azerbaijan will benefit from high energy prices
• We expect the windfall revenue to be largely channeled into SOFAZ
• Inflation will peak at around 15 % later this year

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Mozambique

• Country outlook has improved due to donor support and IMF program
• We remain skeptical about prospects for the non-mining sector 
• Both internal and global inflation pressures are building up

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Ukraine

• The future of Ukraine depends predominantly on the outcome of the war and international support
• Our baseline projection represents the scenario with risks equally distributed on both sides 
• The NBU will keep using capital controls

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Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

• Azerbaijan
• Mozambique
• Ukraine

Upcoming forecast updates:

• Ethiopia (May 23)
• Kyrgyzstan(May 9)
• Mongolia (May 23)
• Myanmar (May9)