OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- April 2022


May 4, 2022

April forecast highlights:


  • Azerbaijan will benefit from high energy prices
  • We expect the windfall revenue to be largely channeled into SOFAZ
  • Inflation will peak at around 15 % later this year


  • Country outlook has improved due to donor support and IMF program
  • We remain skeptical about prospects for the non-mining sector 
  • Both internal and global inflation pressures are building up


  • The future of Ukraine depends predominantly on the outcome of the war and international support
  • Our baseline projection represents the scenario with risks equally distributed on both sides 
  • The NBU will keep using capital controls

Forecast schedule:

Recent forecast updates:

  • Azerbaijan
  • Mozambique
  • Ukraine

Upcoming forecast updates:

  • Ethiopia (May 23)
  • Kyrgyzstan(May 9)
  • Mongolia (May 23)
  • Myanmar (May9)