OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- April 2021

April forecast highlights:

Sierra Leone

• Foreign aid cushioned the economic decline in 2020
• Mining production will support recovery this year
• Foreign inflows have eased the pressure on the currency and contributed to inflation decline

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Tajikistan

• Fiscal position is fragile and consolidation plans are doubtful
• Inflation is set to remain above the NBT target in the near term
• Growth will remain below pre-pandemic average

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Ukraine

• Economic rebound will be moderate in 2021
• Long-term growth prospects are restrained by political tensions and slow reforms
• We expect further NBU rate hikes due to elevated inflation

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Forecast schedule:

April full updates:

• Sierra Leone
• Tajikistan
• Ukraine

Coming in May:

• DRC - May 10
• Kyrgyzstan - May 24
• Madagascar - May 17
• Myanmar (interim) - May 7
• Uzbekistan (interim) - May 7

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