OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- April 2020

April forecast highlights:

Belarus

• Disputes with Russia and COVID-19 outbreak imply negative growth in 2020
• Despite forex, currency weakened in tandem with the Russian ruble
• Long-term prospects remain meager

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Georgia

• Near-term outlook worsened due to COVID-19
• The NBG has maintained tight stance, but gradual easing is expected
• We expect return to positive GDP growth in 2021

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Moldova

• New government secured sizable loans from Russia
• Political outlook remains very uncertain
• Growth will turn strongly negative in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic

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Forecast schedule:

April full updates:

• Belarus
• Georgia
• Moldova

Coming in May:

• Kyrgyzstan - May 4
• Mozambique - May 18