OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- May 2024


May 9, 2024


  • Rising domestic demand and reconstruction in Nagorno-Karabakh boost economic activity
  • Inflation will pick up as demand rebounds, supported by increased fiscal spending
  • The central bank will keep the currency peg


  • Strong coal exports and supportive fiscal policies will keep GDP growth high in 2024
  • Moderating import prices and exchange rate stability will keep inflation lower this year
  • The BoM will keep strong grip on the currency


  • Weak demand and no new installed mining capacities will slow down growth
  • Subdued demand and lower import prices will further decelerate inflation
  • As import needs recover in late 2024, the metical will return to a mild depreciation path


  • Growth will remain slow in the coming years, hindered by fiscal consolidation
  • Inflation will remain elevated amid deficit monetization, followed by price liberalization
  • The CBT will maintain control of the currency in the short term

Read the forecasts in details on our Macro Portal.


Forecast updates in May:

  • Moldova
  • Ukraine