OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- March 2024


March 4, 2024


  • The benefits of RU-UA war will persist in the coming quarters
  • Inflation will pick up amid strong demand and fading disinflationary factors
  • We expect lari to weaken along the drying out of war-related inflows


  • Growth will be solid in the next two years, supported by loose fiscal policy
  • The inflation will remain above NBK’s 5% target at least until 2025
  • Short-term currency pressures will remain contained due to large FX buffers and tight monetary policy


  • Solid economic growth will be sustained by ongoing inflow of foreign aid
  • Prudent monetary policy will keep inflation at 5 % on average
  • The franc will gradually depreciate amid weak external balance

Read the forecasts in details on our Macro Portal.


Upcoming forecast updates

  • Madagascar (Mar 18)
  • Papua New Guinea (Mar 18)
  • Sierra Leone (Mar 4)
  • Uzbekistan (Mar 4)