OGResearch Macro Portal Newsletter -- February 2024


February 1, 2024


  • GDP growth will remain solid in 2024 amid positive RU-UA war externalities and pushed up demand from Nagorno-Karabakh refugees
  • Inflation will bounce back quickly with strong demand pressures still present
  • Dram will moderately depreciate as external inflows normalize


  • Kyrgyzstan continues to benefit from rerouting of Russian foreign trade
  • Strong demand and administered price increases will keep inflation high in 2024
  • The som will depreciate when the foreign trade normalizes and the ruble weakens


  • Benefits of positive spillovers from the RU-UA war will persist in the next few years
  • Inflation is will increase in 2024 driven by strong demand
  • Depreciation will accelerate alongside a weakening ruble

Read the forecasts in details on our Macro Portal.


Upcoming forecast updates

  • Georgia (Feb 5)
  • Kazakhstan (Feb 19)
  • Rwanda (Feb 19)