Macro Forecast Coverage Expands With Uzbekistan Becoming Our 20th Country


November 14, 2017

Growth to increase to 7% in 2018 due to recent devaluation.

Since November, we have broadened the country coverage of our Macro Forecast (FPAS) service to include Uzbekistan. This follows the addition of Ukraine in October and brings the number of countries currently receiving our regular, comprehensive macroeconomic forecast updates to 20.

Macro Forecast now covers 20 countries.

Macroeconomic Forecast For Uzbekistan: Inflation To Reach 17% In Early 2018

After three years of an economic slowdown caused by low gas prices, the Uzbek authorities allowed the exchange rate to adjust by over 100% in September 2017. We assume this has elevated inflation, which we expect to reach about 17% in early 2018.  

Despite the new political leadership's stated resolve to reform the Uzbek economy, we remain cautious on the outlook. Therefore we expect economic growth to settle at around 6% over the medium term and predict a further moderate depreciation of the Uzbek som.

Inflation to spike to 17% in early 2018 before gradual decline.
‍Grey bands represent 10, 30, 50, 70, and 90% confidence intervals because of the measurement error of the historical data.

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