Burundi's sharp exchange rate devaluation was correctly forecasted by OGResearch


May 16, 2023

The Bank of the Republic of Burundi has been recently forced to devalue the Franc's exchange rate, approximately by 35%. This action appears to be linked to a new IMF agreement that was reached in April. OGResearch has been forecasting this devaluation since 2019, and although it took longer than expected, our 2021 forecast accurately predicted both the timing and magnitude of this adjustment. This devaluation could mark the beginning of a period aimed at stabilizing the macroeconomy and addressing the accumulated macro imbalances. These imbalances arose as a result of reduced foreign support following the deterioration of the political situation in the country since 2015.